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11 December 2020
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Why the most dangerous period of the pandemic may be around the corner

By Dr Mohammed Wajid Akhter

GP in Upminster, Essex, Vice-President of the British Islamic Medical Association and International Director of FIMA Lifesavers

"Everything will be fine in the end. If it is not fine, then it is not the end." Oscar Wilde

World War I ended on the 11th hour, of the 11th day of the 11th month. That particular moment was chosen to bring some symmetry and order to what had become the most chaotic carnage that humanity had ever plunged itself into. Of course, we know it as Remembrance day, today. 

Yet, what is often forgotten is that the end of the war was actually agreed and signed off by all parties at 5am. For the sake of poetic symmetry the war continued on pointlessly for six hours and the killing did not just continue, it accelerated. At least 3000 people were killed that day despite many knowing that the war would be officially over before noon.

Why did this happen? Partially this was due to poor communication from the upper echelons of the military to their junior officers. However, the more uncomfortable reason involved human psychology or human nature - we let our guard down the closer we get to the finishing line. 

During a pandemic, as vaccines begin to be rolled out and we can see the finishing line, it is entirely possible that the public will let their guard down to a level that will see one last wave carry away thousands. The nuances of needing a booster dose, waiting till a critical majority are vaccinated and monitoring for effectiveness will be lost in the rush to declare victory and move back to normality.

As leaders, it is our role to see disasters before they take place. Like an experienced sous chef on Masterchef, we should be able to see the raw ingredients and realise immediately the potential for it to create something different. Just as we can foresee this happening, we can also forestall it. As we were reminded time and again in the excellent international Leaders in Healthcare online conference last month, good communication combined with effective policy advocacy will be needed. But first we need to remind everyone what time it is. It is 5am on 11 November and the war is not over yet.

Be safe, remain guarded and alert.

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